Modeling the evacuation dynamics under congestion
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A key aspect related to network design, is estimating how a given system is going to perform under stress or an undesired event. We have worked on models that are able to evaluate the evacuation dynamics in a network of interconnected facilities (e.g., buildings). By using a macroscopic approach, a network optimization model determines the optimal evacuation paths under a rational behavior of the evacuees and without taking into account network congestion. Because this is overly optimistic, an (stochastic) microscopic approach incorporates congestion and the erratic behavior of the evacuees. By feeding back both models, a mesoscopic model is able to estimate evaluation times and identify bottlenecks that cause critical congestion during an evacuation. With this information, it is now possible to identify investment plans that make the network more robust and efficient in terms of disaster or shock. |
Contact: Andrés L. Medaglia and Jorge A. Huertas